What everybody now knows about Joe Biden

Respectfully, he's past his sell-by date. Another candidate needs to tap in

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Eric Zorn is a former opinion columnist for the Chicago Tribune. Find a longer bio and contact information here. This issue exceeds in size the maximum length for a standard email. To read the entire issue in your browser, click on the headline link above. Paid subscribers receive each Picayune Plus in their email inbox each Tuesday, are part of our civil and productive commenting community and enjoy the sublime satisfaction of supporting this enterprise.

Tuesdays at 11:30 a.m. I talk with WGN-AM 720 host John Williams about what’s making news and likely to be grist for the PS mill. The WGN listen-live link is here.

What everybody knows

Donald Trump is the king of the bullshit “everybody.” Here are some examples from his debate last Thursday with President Joe Biden, italics mine:

• We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We had never done so well. Everybody was amazed by it.

• Fifty-one years ago, you had Roe v. Wade, and everybody wanted to get it back to the states, everybody, without exception. Democrats, Republicans, liberals, conservatives, everybody wanted it back. Religious leaders. And what I did is I put three great Supreme Court justices on the court, and they happened to vote in favor of killing Roe v. Wade and moving it back to the states. This is something that everybody wanted. … every legal scholar, throughout the world, the most respected, wanted it brought back to the states.

• (Joe Biden is) the worst president in history by far, and everybody knows it.

To take that first claim, about the Trump economy, the Associated Press offered these fact checks:

Trump assured the public in 2017 that the U.S. economy with his tax cuts would grow at “3%,” but he added, “I think it could go to 4, 5, and maybe even 6%, ultimately.” (But) if the 2020 pandemic is excluded, growth after inflation averaged 2.67% under Trump, according to figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Include the pandemic-induced recession and that average drops to an anemic 1.45%.

By contrast, growth during the second term of then-President Barack Obama averaged 2.33%. So far under Biden, annual growth is averaging 3.4%. …The United States lost 2.7 million jobs during Trump’s presidency, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If the pandemic months are excluded, he added 6.7 million jobs. By contrast, 15.4 million jobs (have been) added during Biden’s presidency.

Legal scholars were divided about Roe v. Wade and even many of those who thought it was inelegantly or wrongly decided were opposed to returning the issue of abortion back to the states. (See CNN’s fact check, PolitFact and FactCheck.org).

And when it comes to which president is the worst in history, The ⁠Presidential Greatness Project at the University of Houston and Coastal Carolina University late last year invited 525 political scientists and historians to score all 45 U.S. presidents from 1 to 100.

They received 154 responses. Abraham Lincoln placed first. Biden ranked 14th. Trump finished dead last.

(Trump was No. 1 when the academics ranked the most polarizing presidents. The most underrated president was Jimmy Carter — Biden was 6th — and the most overrated president was John F. Kennedy.)

Who knew what when about Biden?

So I had an instinctive negative reaction when I read the following assertions in a Tribune editorial Sunday about what “everyone” knows about the idea of the 81-year-old Biden running for reelection:

It’s a ridiculous idea. Everyone sees that now. Everyone sees that the Democratic Party, which effectively closed down the primaries, and the White House, which painted a picture of fictional cognitive vitality, have been covering up a reality that they must have seen but clearly wished were otherwise. Everyone knows that media partisans, with some courageous exceptions, have done much the same.

But I’ll allow it.

The assertion is not literally true, of course. Biden himself doesn’t see it, for instance. And it may well be that members of his family and of his inner circle don’t see it, though surely they know it.

Biden was dreadfully disappointing Thursday night, exemplified by this snippet of the transcript:

We have a thousand trillionaires in America – I mean, billionaires in America. And what’s happening? They’re in a situation where they, in fact, pay 8.2% in taxes. If they just paid 24 percent or 25 percent, either one of those numbers, they’d raised $500 million – billion dollars, I should say, in a 10-year period. We’d be able to right — wipe out his debt. We’d be able to help make sure that — all those things we need to do, childcare, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our healthcare system, making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the COVID – excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with. Look, if — we finally beat Medicare.

Side note: As The Washington Post noted, the 8.2% claim is based on a “2021 White House study concluding that the 400 wealthiest taxpayers paid an effective tax rate of 8%.”

But that estimate included unrealized gains in the income calculation. That’s not how the tax laws work. People are taxed on capital gains when they sell their stocks or other assets. So this is only a figure for a hypothetical tax system.

According to IRS data on the top 0.001 percent — 1,475 taxpayers with at least $77 million in adjusted gross income in 2020 — the average tax rate was 23.7 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers (income of at least $548,000) paid nearly 26 percent.

But it was the weak, rambling nature of Biden’s answer — not its inaccuracy — that was so troubling to so many of us on the left, and so exhilarating to just about all of those on the right.

He appeared addled, confused, lost.

“We finally beat Medicare”?

What the hell?

The early debate was a potentially pivotal moment in the 2024 campaign, a chance for Biden to allay the increasingly common perception that he’s sliding into senescence and no longer cognitively up to the job of being the leader of the free world. And he was gibbering.

Trump was a loose firehose of lies, and Biden was not nearly fast enough on his feet to counterpunch effectively.

During the debate and in the immediate aftermath, lefties and Democrats were in full panic at how Biden had actually confirmed a major doubt about his candidacy. Even the talking heads on MSNBC’s post-debate chin-wag were despairing.

In the increasingly scary war against white supremacists, Christian nationalists and would-be autocrats in the Republican Party, this is who the Democrats are sending to lead the charge into battle?

The Democratic spinners and strategists ultimately came around to the explanation/excuse that Biden “just had a bad night,” and that happens to political candidates.

It wasn’t just one bad night, as some of his defenders have said. It was a portentous pratfall, confirmation that he is far from on top of his game anymore.

But it wasn’t just a bad night. It was a disaster. It was a permission slip tendered to independent, moderate voters to support the blustery, confident Trump or to sit out the election altogether. It was confirmation of the apprehensions of a majority of voters and a significant percentage of Democrats that Biden is far from on top of his game anymore.

Forbes summarized recent polling:

• Only one in five respondents in an Ipsos poll of over 2,500 likely voters taken after the debate called Biden’s mental fitness “good” or “excellent,” a seven-point drop from another Ipsos poll conducted just days before the debate.

• Among likely Democratic voters, the drop was even more severe, with 42% saying after the debate they believe Biden is mentally fit, compared to 56% beforehand. …

• Another 60% of respondents in a Morning Consult poll conducted one day after the debate said Biden should “probably” or “definitely” be replaced with another Democratic candidate in the November election—including 47% of Democratic voters.

• Among Morning Consult respondents who watched the debate, 78% said Biden is too old, an increase from a Morning Consult poll released just days before the debate, when 64% of all voters said the same (45% of voters said Trump is too old after the debate, a slight increase from the 42% who said the same before the debate).

• Only 35% of respondents in Morning Consult’s post-debate poll said Biden is mentally fit, another drop from just days before the debate, when 43% of respondents called him mentally fit—while Trump’s mental fitness numbers rose from 47% to 54%.

It’s a break the glass and pull the fire alarm moment for Democrats. Even if Biden somehow manages to win reelection — a prospect that became less likely Thursday night — he’s plainly not up for four more years in the White House. And he’s plainly not the best Democrat to lead the fight against Trump and Trumpism.

Nearly everybody knows this now.

Many of us have known it or feared it for quite some time. Bless Biden for sweeping in four years ago to win just enough centrist votes to oust the malignant Trump from office. He did a great service to his nation. And he’s been a pretty good president. But he failed to see himself as a transitional figure with an obligation to yield to the next generation of leaders, and he imagines himself the best person to beat back the Trump threat.

Why the party enabled this delusion may turn out to be one of the most maddening conundrums in American history. The deference to Biden’s incumbency and his ego now looks likely to undo much of what he accomplished, further cement a conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court and unleash the dogs of dictatorship, especially in light of the high court’s ruling Monday that in many ways puts the president above the law.

The denials of this obvious truth by top Democrats in response to the collective freakout on the left have been transparent and unpersuasive. They seem inspired not so much by confidence in Biden as by fear of the intra-party battle that would break out were Biden to step aside for another candidate.

And yes, that battle would be a divisive mess. It would exacerbate grievances and open wounds. But a quick, exciting campaign that highlighted the vigor of the new candidate and the perils of Trump’s Project 2025 stands a better chance of success than this effort to drag a plainly diminished octogenarian across one more finish line.

Don’t get me wrong. I would vote for Biden over Trump if he were in a coma. So would tens of millions of other Americans. And Trump’s flagrantly mendacious performance in Thursday’s debate — which would have been the story if Biden hadn’t faltered so badly — ought to disqualify him as well.

But for Democratic leaders to stick with Biden out of loyalty or convenience or fear of the unknown is dangerous and tactically unwise. “We finally beat Medicare,” mumbled by the dazed Biden will be in thousands of attack ads in the coming months.

Not literally everyone knows it, but more than enough now know it to lend a special urgency to this moment.

Notes and comments from readers — lightly edited — along with my responses

Has Joe gotta go?

Laurence E Siegel — Despite the post-debate bleatings of the talking heads at CNN and the other media outlets, what did we learn about either candidate we didn't already know? The election is still five months away. The debate will fade over time. Other things will occur. Trump is still Trump. And if Biden bowed out of the race, who would take his place? Among the names being floated by donors as alternatives are Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. But tell me which one would have a chance to beat Trump?

Bob E. — Add to your list Corey Booker, JB Pritzker and Amy Klobuchar. All would be far superior to Biden in the wake of that debate fiasco. This is not saying that Trump is fit to be president. He's totally unfit. But even if Biden is marginally less unfit than Trump cognitively speaking, he's still unfit to serve another four years in the White House.

C . Pittman — Biden will lose to Trump. He was already behind in key polls mostly due to inflation and his age. Our only chance at beating Trump is for Biden to unify the party around different candidates. The stakes are so high!

Trump is so bad that almost any younger Democrat could beat him. If we are only voting against Trump, which I will, why can't the party rally around a Gretchen Whitmer or even a Newsom or someone that can effectively make the case against Trump and get the younger voters off the couch and to the voting booths? Old age and declining mental health cannot be fixed, it only gets worse. It is extremely selfish of Biden and other leading Democrats to risk this. Democrat Hubert Humphrey lost to Republican Richard Nixon in 1968 in part because the left flank of the party tore him up and we have that same dynamic now. In ‘68, people wanted a change and went with Nixon. Voters want a change now and the Democrats should give it to them.

Mark K. — It's fine to be disappointed by the limited and imperfect choices we are presented, but in the face of what Trump represents, what kinds of people he will appoint to be judges and heads of regulatory agencies, the kinds of policies he will encourage from the legislature, criticizing Biden as too old or "cognitively impaired" is infuriatingly misguided. It's like complaining that the lifeguard saving you from drowning is not good looking enough or pinched your underarm when he was pulling you ashore.

 Rick Weiland -- I’d rather have an old president surrounded by good people than a maniac president surrounded by sycophants. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the sane and civilized.

Accused Highland Park July 4 parade shooter backs out of a plea deal

Kim Barkemeyer — Regarding “Another disgusting act of cruelty by Robert E. Crimo III,” everyone needs to remind themselves that this guy has mental health issues. He has been in prison for two years now and I would imagine a packed courtroom would be overwhelming and immobilizing for someone with no social skills. I certainly hope he never sees the light of day. But he is mentally ill, and the adults in his life over the years did not provide good guidance.

Zorn — I’m no expert on psychopathology, but it seems to me definitionally true that anyone who commits mass or serial murder has mental health issues. But when they have the agency and wherewithal to attempt to conceal their crimes and flee the scene, as Crimo III did, he clearly had the awareness of right and wrong to be held fully responsible.

Pete Prokopowicz -- Robert Crimo III seems like the worst kind of human being among us. Maybe the option of the death penalty at trial would have encouraged him to plead guilty and go quietly to his cell.

Skeptic —Overly broad application and the unintended consequences of having a death penalty make it a bad public policy. But having it as an option in Illinois did provide some benefits.

Zorn -- That is certainly true, but the other side of that coin is that there have been times where innocent people have pleaded guilty because they were so afraid of the death penalty.

Give this show a chance!

I wrote last week about my enthusiasm for “Reservation Dogs” streaming on Hulu, and noted that it took me and Johanna several episodes before we were hooked. I asked readers which shows they tell people to stick with.

Skeptic – I recommend “Longmire.” The first few seasons were produced for A&E, then it moved to Netflix where show lengths could vary, and season-long and multi-season long story arcs were more significant. I liked both phases of it. At first, I found it refreshing to watch a show which followed the old format that I grew up with. I would not recommend giving it a chance for 2-3 seasons. If you don't like it by the end of season 1, then it's probably not for you.

Lynne Allen Taylor — I recommend “Dark Wind” on AMC +. Nina Metz recommends “Interview with a Vampire” on AMC+ as the best show on TV, but I couldn't get into it even though I was friends with Eric Bogosian in college. (Name drop!)

Ellen Siciliano — Our two "just give it a chance" shows are “Schitt's Creek” (now on Hulu) and “What We Do in the Shadows” on FX. Friends kept insisting they were worth it. And we're so glad we gave the shows time. We absolutely love them and rewatch them often. We love to laugh, and those shows deliver.

Zorn — I stayed away from "Schitt's Creek" because the title was so juvenile. The upside was that it was still fresh for us during the pandemic, when we really needed the comic relief. It's a wonderful show.

It’s been three years since I left the Tribune

Bob E. — I really enjoyed your item about your anniversary of leaving the paper. You wrote:

'True, the Picayune Sentinel is less remunerative than my Tribune job, but I have lots more time now for hobbies, friends and family. The balance feels just right. When people ask how I’m doing, I say that I’ve never been happier or more content, though, of course, the normal concerns and anxieties of a 66-year-old are always buzzing around my brain.'

I retired a little over six years ago. If you replace “Picayune Sentinel” with pickleball in the clip above, “Tribune” with the name of my former employer, and the age 66 with 71, then I couldn’t have said it better.

Peter Zackrison --Do you get a lot of hate/ inappropriate email and comments now compared to when you wrote for the Tribune?

Zorn — I get less vitriol by quite a bit now as compared to then, and I should have mentioned that. Readership here is more self-selecting and the conservative voices who weigh in and react tend to be smart, civil and on point. That said, the vitriol I used to get tended to amuse me more than annoy me.

 PrismaRose -- Hi Eric! I subscribe to many Substacks, but I always, always read yours. Informative, funny, nice variety of items. Yours was my first Substack, and in this case, first is best.

Zorn — Thanks! And tell your friends.

Ya gotta see these tweets!

Here are some funny visual images I've come across recently on social media. Enjoy, then evaluate:

Vote for your favorite. I’ll share the winner in Thursday’s main edition.

Usage note: To me, “tweet” has become a generic term for a short post on social media. And I will continue to call the platform Twitter if only to spite Elon Musk:

On this issue and perhaps this issue alone, I am with U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett:

There’s still time to vote in the conventional Tweet of the Week poll!

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